The risk of death

From the developmental set of 8369 patients, an equation, based on the multiple logistic regression model, was developed to convert the SAPS II score to a probability of hospital mortality. Since it was observed that the distribution of the SAPS II score was highly skewed, a shrinking power transformation ln(SAPS II score + 1), was incorporated into the model. Thus the model contained two explanatory variables, SAPS II score and ln(SAPS II score + 1).

The first step in calculating the probability of hospital mortality is to compute the logit as follows:

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