Calibration

Calibration tests the extent of agreement between the expected and actual numbers of hospital deaths across subgroups of patients. For example, patients are grouped by decile of the probability of hospital death. The expected number of hospital deaths within each subgroup (the sum of the individual patient estimates of the probability of hospital death) is compared with the actual number of deaths within each subgroup, and the expected number of hospital survivors is compared with the actual number of hospital survivors. The agreement across the whole range of probabilities can be tested formally using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic.

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